ItalyIsrael

Israel leaves a lot of space away - allowing over an average of 1.2 xGA, conceding nine goals in their last two matches. Due to the high tempo (10+ shots/90 on both sides) and less stable defense, a high goal expectation (total λ≈3.5) is predicted. Despite the Italian absentees (Kean, Scamacca), the form of Retegui and Raspadori, as well as the deep squad, mean that the home team's attacking potential does not decrease significantly. Based on disciplinary/defensive data, both teams show an average of over 3.5 yellow cards, predicting a tense, fast-paced match. Main risk: if Gattuso's team takes an early lead and slows down the game, the number of goals could drop; additionally, despite Israel's motivation, lack of precision in attacks might result in no goals from the visitors.