MilanFiorentina

On the other hand, the visiting Fiorentina remains winless after six rounds, with the attack tallying only 4 (!) goals, generating around ~1.3 xG based on the game’s image, but conceding 1.6–1.7 xGA. Due to the visitors' lack of pressing, their shot/SoT ratios are negative (about 12–15 shots, but only 3–4 on-target attempts per match). Neither side stands out in terms of corners (Milan 4.5, Viola 4.0 on average), and when it comes to cards, Milan plays more cleanly (less than 1 yellow/90), whereas Fiorentina often fouls (close to 2 yellow/90), which may slow down the game. The main risk is that Milan may be less creative with several injuries (Pulisic, Rabiot), while the return of Kean to the visitors may add a little extra, but overall the expected goal distribution is around 1.8 - 0.7.