ChelseaPafos FC

According to statistics, Chelsea is a real home fortress: in the 2025-26 season, they won all their European home games, averaging 3.0 expected goals (xG) while conceding only 0.9. a quarter of their shots are on target, indicating poor quality.

The stakes are high for both sides: Chelsea is aiming for the top 8, while the Cypriots are chasing the playoff zone, so there will be no lack of motivation. However, Rosenior might rotate: Mudryk is suspended, Adarabioyo, Colwill, and Lavia are absent, but the squad is deep, and even so, the Fofana-Badiashile pair can start in the center of defense. Pafos's defense, on the other hand, might fall apart: David Luiz and Goldar are injured, so the visitors may have to resort to emergency measures. Chelsea's high pressing can easily exploit this while remaining stable at the back, as the Cypriot team rarely reaches the opponent's penalty area.

The greatest uncertainty comes from the short sample time with the new coach and home rotation, but the numbers still project an xG around 2.4-0.6, meaning a two to three-goal victory for the blues, with few attacking chances for the visitors.