Real BetisRayo Vallecano

Betis come into this one in good form (three straight league wins), and their home numbers are strong too: 22 points from 11 home league games, which gives them a solid base to go for all three points. You can see the quality of their attacking play in the squad as well: with Antony, Abde and the Cucho/Bakambu options, they have several players who bring high shot volume and goals, which usually pushes their home expected goals towards around 1.5, especially against a Rayo side that often lose on the road (8 defeats in 12 away league matches).

From a motivation standpoint, Rayo are under pressure (close to the relegation zone), and the 3-0 win over Atletico Madrid clearly lifts the mood. That said, that standout result on its own might not mean a real turning point - their recent league run has been up and down. In goal, Batalla makes a lot of saves, which can suggest they often allow shots on target, so a Betis-dominant spell is a realistic scenario.

The biggest uncertainty is Betis lacking creativity in midfield (Isco and Lo Celso are injured, Amrabat is also out), which could reduce the number of clear-cut chances. The recent head-to-head also leans towards draws (several in a row). Because of that, instead of a straight home win, the safer result markets with protection and cautious goal lines look more valuable.