LazioBologna

In the fiercely contested middle of the league table, 8th placed Lazio welcomes Bologna, who have started the season well and are dreaming of European competition. The capital team is particularly stable at home: out of six home league matches, they have won four, collected 13 points, and haven't conceded a goal in their last three home league matches and the cup. Their expected goals conceded at home is around 0.8, which is the third best in the league. In attack, they produce "only" around 1.4 expected goals, but that's enough if they remain rock solid at the back.

Bologna is also solid away from home (unbeaten in their last five away matches), but the numbers tell a nuanced story: in their six league away matches, they have expected goals of 6.5 but allowed expected goals of 9.6, meaning they often find themselves pressed back in front of their goal. The absence of the visitors' first-choice goalkeeper (Skorupski) and Freuler is sensitive, while Lazio only has to do without a few midfielders. Sarri's team has had few rest days, but they rotated in the cup, so no extreme fatigue is expected.

The Serie A average number of cards per match is above average (5.1 per match), and due to both teams' aggressive full-backs, 4–5 cards are realistic.