StuttgartAugsburg

The statistics suggest that Stuttgart continues to have above-average attacking efficiency at home (expected home goals ≈ 2.1), while Augsburg, due to poor form in recent weeks, can expect only ≈ 0.9 goals away. Stuttgart's back xGA at home is only ≈ 1.0, further strengthened by Augsburg not scoring in their last three matches. A risk factor is Demirović still absent, so the finishing falls on Undav and company, while Stuttgart's high pressing sometimes offers counterattacking opportunities. Overall, however, the form curve, shooting quality (home npxG 0.18/shot vs. away 0.10), and defensive difference tip the scales in favor of the hosts.