PisaInternazionale

As we reach the first third of the season, Pisa, fighting for survival, hosts Inter, competing for Champions League spots. The home team has proven to be a tough opponent: they've built a six-match unbeaten streak at the Arena Garibaldi and haven't conceded a goal at home for 436 minutes. However, their attacking efficiency remains limited (averaging 0.8 expected goals per match), and Nzola has only scored three goals so far. Their defense's xGA figure (1.23) is mid-table, but they allow many long shots, which could suit the Calhanoglu-Dimarco duo. After thirteen rounds, Inter is one of the league's most balanced teams with an expected goal average of 2.1 and 1.0 conceded xG. After the city derby and the loss in Madrid, Chivu's team is extra motivated, but there's little room for rotation: Dumfries is still out, Mkhitaryan could return. The main uncertainty is Pisa's high-line defense and Inter's fatigue level, but these factors mainly increase the variance in goal tally, not the final outcome.