Athletic ClubAtlético Madrid

Athletic Bilbao is underperforming: in the league, they have scored only 14 goals and conceded 20 in 15 matches, with a home average of 1.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Their shot volume is modest (11.7 attempts on average), and the quality of their chances is also mediocre - the absence of the quick depth play built around Inaki Williams is particularly noticeable, and the Ghanaian striker is still a major doubt, while Yeray is suspended, leaving both the attacking and defensive lines incomplete.

Atlético Madrid's seven-match winning streak was broken at Camp Nou, but looking at the season as a whole, they've been consistent: 35–23 goal difference in 18 league matches, with an away average of 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded. The visitors' expected goals metrics (1.55 xG per match, 1.25 xGA) indicate a stable control, and Jan Oblak's performance adds a slight bonus in terms of goals conceded. There are questions within the squad (Llorente and Le Normand with minor injuries, Baena and Cardoso doubtful), but Simeone's rotation has worked well so far, the defensive structure is solid even away, and Julián Álvarez and Griezmann are showing good form upfront.

Atlético, when away, focuses more on safety, allowing only 9.4 shots on goal per match. The tight schedule (Atlético has a Champions League match in Eindhoven this week) might bring some rotation, but the visitors' deep squad compensates for this.