ArsenalManchester United

Arsenal's unbeaten home record (14 wins, 2 draws, only 11 goals conceded at the Emirates) clearly shows why they are leading the table with a seven-point advantage. Meanwhile, Manchester United have not gone goalless away from home - with 1.4 expected goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded every 90 minutes - but they have failed to keep a clean sheet in all 11 away league matches. Thus, the numbers suggest an expected goal distribution around 2.2-1.0, predicting a match with approximately 3.2 total goals.

Mikel Arteta's squad is almost fully fit: Calafiori and Hincapié could return, while the attacking line with Gyökeres, Saka, and Trossard are in great form. For the visitors, Carrick still cannot count on De Ligt, and Zirkzee's participation is uncertain, but he is likely to keep the starting lineup from the impressive performance against City. United have scored in their last 11 competitive matches, yet they arrive without a clean sheet on the road.

There's no shortage of stakes: Arsenal is looking to solidify their championship lead, while United is fighting for Champions League spots, so a focused but not overly cautious play is expected. The main uncertainty is the positive impact of the recent managerial change at United and whether Arteta will rotate due to intense scheduling. Overall, statistics favor Arsenal, but due to the visitors' attacking play, it's wise to consider cautious, covered result and goal market options.