LazioLecce

In recent weeks, Lazio has visibly stabilized its defense: in five league matches played at the Olimpico, they conceded only four goals, while averaging two goals per match (goal difference of 10-4, 1.56 expected goals/home match). Based on their home average points (2.0), the Romans would move from the middle of the table to the edge of the international places. On the other hand, the visiting Lecce is struggling away: in six away trips, they scored only three goals (0.50 goals/match; 0.60 expected goals), while conceding nearly 1.5 expected goals on average. Their attacking play is further weakened by Krstović still being out, Camarda's participation being questionable, leaving Stulić alone up front. In Sarri's team, Castellanos and Rovella are absent, but the defense (Gila–Romagnoli pair) and winger Zaccagni are healthy, and Boulaye Dia can add something new in terms of pace. The likelihood of few away goals is supported by Lecce being scoreless in three of the last five rounds. In terms of motivation, Lazio is chasing European spots, while Lecce is trying to escape the relegation zone, so the stakes are high on both sides. The risk is increased by the home team's key midfield absence and Dia's lack of form, as well as the visitors' potential counter-focus, but the statistical difference remains significant.