Bayern MunichWolfsburg

The league-leading Bayern is almost unstoppable at home: the Munich team has won ten out of their eleven competitive matches at the Allianz Arena, scoring on average nearly four times (expected home goals: around 2.9). The attacking trio of Kompany's 4-2-3-1 formation will again rely on Harry Kane, Luis Díaz, and Michael Olise, while the absence of the injured Davies and Kimmich creates a slight thorn in the left side and ball progression - but the statistics still indicate a solid advantage (expected goal difference ≈ +2.3). Wolfsburg is only mediocre on the road (1.3 goals conceded in 7 matches, but 1.5 expected goals allowed), and the team's two top strikers, Amoura (Africa Cup) and Wind (injured), are out, so the counter-game will depend on Pejčinović's and Majer/Wimmer's creativity. The green-whites scored 3 goals in each of their last 4 matches, but their shooting quality remains inconsistent, and there are many defensive errors (1.75 goals conceded per match, Grabara has pulled out 28 goals already). Risk factor: Bayern's defense hasn't kept a clean sheet in four home matches, and the quest for rhythm after the winter break could make the opening quarter unpredictable. Nevertheless, the statistical and squad quality differences are clear.