Bayer LeverkusenWerder Bremen

After a difficult October to January stretch (three losses in a row), Leverkusen wants to get the train heading towards Champions League spots back on track at home. In their seven league matches at the BayArena so far, their average is 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded, and the number of shots (an average of 15/7 on target) and their quality (expected goals ~2.2) place them in the upper third of the league. On the other side, Bremen has been winless in seven away games, with an average of 2.3 goals conceded per match. The visitors’ scoring potential ranges between 0.9 and 1.1 expected goals, which may weaken further as, alongside Boniface with a knee injury, two key central defenders are also missing. For the home team, the absence of Flekken and Tapsoba increases the uncertainty at the back, but the main bases of their attack (Grimaldo, Schick, Poku) are available.

The main risk factors are Leverkusen’s injured defensive line and Bremen's counterattacks, but based on statistics, the balance of power is clear.