Atlético MadridOsasuna

Based on the data, a high-intensity match is shaping up, but not necessarily a goal-fest. However, there are defensive errors: 5 goals conceded in four home games, with an average of 0.9 xGA. Osasuna is reserved away - only 7 goals scored in eight rounds, their xG is around 0.8, but their defense is organized (0.9 goals conceded per match, 8 conceded in total). Atlético is expected to dictate the pace with high pressing and many progressive passes (44 prog.passes from Llorente), while the Navarrese will counter-attack from a deep block. From corners, the home team averages 5.5 p90, Osasuna 3.8. Card statistics suggest that 4-5 yellow cards wouldn't be surprising due to the intertwined fighting styles, especially with the home defense reorganized after Lenglet's absence. The main risk is that Atlético might rotate before the CL match, and Osasuna's tight defense could dampen the goal output.