FranceUkraine

France has achieved a 9–3 goal difference in the four matches they have played in the qualification series so far. At home, their expected average goal metric approaches 2.0, while the visitors concede over 2.0 on the road. Due to injuries (Dembélé, Kolo Muani), the home λ is adjusted to around 1.95 and the away λ to 0.60 because of Ukraine's striker shortage. The main risk is the new composition of the French attack line and the effectiveness of Ukrainian counterattacks, but the statistical difference is still significant.