EvertonArsenal

Everton is delivering fluctuating performances at the new stadium: based on 16 league games, they have an average of just 1.13 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per match, and the quality indicators (expected goals: around 1.15–1.30) do not make the attacking lineup intimidating. Moreover, they will be missing their most creative midfielder, Dewsbury-Hall, at the weekend, and Ndiaye and Gana Gueye are at the Africa Cup of Nations, which further weakens their ball progression and second-wave pressing.

The absence of Ben White means a forced reshuffle on the right side of the defense, but with Calafiori returning, the structure remains stable. The attacking trio of Saka–Gyökeres–Trossard generates nearly two expected goals on average, correlating with their goal tally (30 goals in 16 rounds).

The stakes are high for both sides: Arsenal aims to maintain their Christmas top spot, while Everton could climb closer to the European places with a potential upset. The risk is posed by the congested December schedule and the limited rotation typical of top teams, but Arteta's squad is deep, while Moyes' is currently depleted. Overall, this suggests a controlled, Arsenal-dominated encounter, where the visiting goals, Everton's restrained attack, and the difference in defensive quality may determine the outcome.