EnglandSerbia

The numbers show a huge difference between the two teams. England achieved an 18-0 goal difference in their six qualifiers, producing an average of 3.0 expected goals per match while keeping the opponents' xG around 0.5. Serbia, on the other hand, only managed around 1.2 xG in total, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded, and now they are missing Mitrović, who scored 63 goals, further reducing the visitors' xG by 0.15. The Serbian tactical shift suggests a more aggressive pressing, which increases the number of cards and quick English counter-attacks but also provides a chance for Vlahović to score once - hence the BTTS "no" market is only medium-risk. Main risk: England has already qualified, so Tuchel can rotate; this motivational factor increases variance.