CagliariMilan

The island team Cagliari starts the new year with the arrival of Milan, who are chasing the championship title. The home team is only three points ahead of the relegation zone after 17 rounds with 20 points; their average of 1.35 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded so far shows weak attacking and vulnerable defense.

Milan, on the other hand, has been unbeaten in the league since August, maintaining their expected goals conceded below 2.0 even away, while producing an expected goals scored of around 1.8. Allegri uses a tight rotation: in front of the defensive trio of Tomori - Pavlović - Gabbia, Modrić and Fofana set the pace, while upfront Pulisic (10 league goals) and the in-form Nkunku efficiently capitalize on the few opportunities.

On the injury front for Cagliari, Belotti and Folorunsho are still missing, leaving Kilicsoy as the only available center forward. In Milan, although Leão has returned to training, he is expected to play only as a substitute; this slightly reduces but does not upset the attacking score. The stakes are high for both sides: a win for the visitors could temporarily put them ahead of Inter, while for the Sardinians, every point is crucial to avoid relegation.

Statistically, an expected goal distribution of around 1.8-0.9 emerges, which suggests a Milan victory and a lower goal tally. The uncertainty might be caused by Cagliari occasionally surprising the big teams with aggressive pressing, but the overall quality difference and missing players tip the balance in favor of the visitors.