EspanyolGirona

Espanyol had a great autumn, winning six out of ten home matches, while the expected goals metrics (16.0-13.3) also confirm that they consistently outperform their opponents at the RCDE. The visiting Girona is much more inconsistent away: in their nine league trips, they've only won twice and their 1.4 goals conceded average is paired with just around 1.0 expected attacking goals. Michel's team is also hit by an injury wave (Portu, Ounahi, Abel Ruiz, Van de Beek, Juan Carlos, and the suspended Kourouma), which mainly weakens their creative section, so we can expect fewer combinations and fewer quality chances from them. On Manolo González's side, the squad is almost complete: Pol Lozano returns to the midfield, Puado is already available as a substitute, so the usual organized defense and midfield pressing can work again. The Catalan derby is always a prestige battle, but it also matters on the table: Espanyol, fifth, is fighting for the Champions League places, while 13th-placed Girona can't breathe easy from the relegation zone's shadow yet. Main risk: Girona has also secured two victories in recent weeks, so confidence may grow, but based on the numbers, their attacking point remains limited.