Real MadridLevante

At the Bernabéu this weekend, two completely different trajectories meet. Real Madrid's home record in the league is 8 wins, 1 loss in 9 matches, with a goal difference of 23-6, and their expected goals (expected goal difference) statistic is well above +1.6 per match. The shooting volume is over 15, while the quality of chances hovers around an average of 0.15 xG/shot, and defensively they concede less than 0.8 expected goals per game. In Arbeloa's first league match, Courtois, Bellingham, Mbappé, and Vinícius return, with only Rodrygo missing - barely reducing the home team's firepower.

Levante, with their new coach (Luis Castro), remains unbeaten in the last three rounds, but their away performance numbers for the entire season are weak: 10 matches with a 13-12 goal difference, and an expected goal difference of around -0.06. Two starting defenders (Elgezabal, Victor García) are still injured, leaving gaps in set-pieces and deep defense.

The main risk is the uncertainty after the coaching change, and Real's potential "premature tempo management," but the statistical superiority remains significant.