DortmundSt. Pauli

According to predictions, this matchup is about the quality difference: Borussia Dortmund, fighting for Champions League spots, hosts St. Pauli, stuck in the relegation zone. The yellow-blacks are unbeaten in the last ten league matches and have only suffered one home defeat, while their shooting volume (average ~16 attempts, 6–7 on target) and chance quality remain consistently in the top third of the league.

Niko Kovač's squad is almost complete; the back three, Schlotterbeck-Anton-Süle, with Brandt and Beier up front, can serve the in-form André Silva. On the other hand, the visitors are missing key players: Irvine and Sinani are out from the midfield, Hountondji from the attacking line is down, and goalkeeper Spari is also out. Blessin, therefore, might rely on an improvised midfield and the Ceesay-Lage duo to attack, which further decreases the estimated visiting goal expectation of around 0.7 and the shooting volume.

Motivation is present on both sides, but for St. The main risk is Dortmund potentially slowing down after taking an early lead and the visitors' occasionally explosive transitions, but due to the injuries, the chance of this is moderate. Overall, based on statistics, form, and motivation, the home side is stable with a moderate goal count.