ArsenalAtlético Madrid

In the Premier League, they generate an average of 1.9 xG and allow only 0.5 xGA. Shots end with a 17-8 ratio, on-target attempts close at 6-2, indicating attacking superiority and minimal defensive risk.

Atlético, on the other hand, has scored in every competitive match this year (average of ~2.0 goals/xG 1.7), even though they are winless away (0-3-2). The Spanish team allows an average of 14 shots, with an xGA around 1.3. For corners, the home team averages 6.2, and the visitors 5.8, so an overall figure around 12 is expected. Regarding cards, due to Rice and Calafiori, there is a higher than average risk (4-5 cards) observed.

Main risk: Atlético can still break through defenses (Griezmann-Álvarez duo), while Arsenal's injury list includes Odegaard, Jesus, and Madueke. The English team's ball retention and high pressing can counterbalance the Spanish counterattacks, but the chance of a visitor goal is still significant.