BarcelonaAtlético Madrid

The league leader Barcelona and Atlético, trailing by three points and on a six-match winning streak, are facing off in a true top clash. Atlético is stable away but not fearsome: 1.05 expected goals scored, 1.07 expected goals conceded, and they often defend in a deep block without the ball. However, injuries could affect both sides: Barcelona is still missing Ter Stegen and Gavi, Ronald Araújo's participation is doubtful, while for the visitors, Marcos Llorente and Robin Le Normand's appearances are highly uncertain. The latter's absence could weaken Atlético's set-piece defense and ball play, potentially worsening their current 1.18 goals conceded average. The stakes are clear: the winner takes a huge step towards the league title, hence both sides are expected to field strong starting elevens. Due to high motivation and attacking potential on both sides, we anticipate a goal-rich encounter, dominated by Barcelona; however, the absence of Araújo and Le Normand increases defensive uncertainty - this is the main risk factor.