SevillaAthletic Club

At the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, two teams searching for form will meet. Sevilla's home record (14-16 goal difference in 10 matches) is not exactly intimidating, yet it looks somewhat better than Athletic's away performance (only 8 points in 10 appearances). Our expected goals per match based on statistics is 1.30-1.10 for the home and away sides respectively, so in total around 2.4 goals, which leans towards a more restrained match.

The motivation is clear: Sevilla is only two points away from the relegation zone, while Bilbao - after last year's Champions League finish - is slipping but still hopes for international spots. There are many absentees on both sides. For the home team, Marcao and Mendy are suspended, Nianzou and Ruben Vargas are injured - this weakens the heart of the defense. For the guests, Guruzeta and Lekue are out due to suspensions, and Inaki Williams and Laporte due to injuries, so Valverde's attacking play might be saved by the creative Robert Navarro and the in-form Sancet. Bilbao might be more tired after a successful midweek Champions League outing in Bergamo, while Sevilla could prepare for this match all week.

Due to the many absences, the variance increases, but based on the numbers, a tight, low-scoring clash is likely, where the home ground gives Sevilla a slight edge while the Basques might manage at most one goal. The main risks are defensive improvisations and Bilbao's travel fatigue.