StuttgartMainz 05

They've conceded only six goals in seven league rounds (0.55 goals conceded p90), indicating one of the best defenses in the league; Although not prolific in attack (1.4 xG p90), their home record of 4/4 wins, 6-1 goal difference, and an average xG of 1.5 shows stable efficiency. Mainz lacks away data, but their form (last three league matches: 3 goals scored, 10 goals conceded, 0.0 big chances) and the 4-0 loss to Hamburg suggest that their defense is leaky (3.3 goals conceded p90 in the mentioned period), and their attacking game is of low quality (around 0.8 xG). The corner profile - Stuttgart 5.7, Mainz 4.3 corners p90 - is moderate; for cards, both sides fluctuate around 1.4-1.6 yellows p90, so extreme indiscipline is not expected. Main risks: Stuttgart's rotation due to Thursday's EL match and Mainz's counter-attacks, but the difference in squad quality and defensive statistics predict a one-sided match.