AjaxGalatasaray

They still have a positive goal difference in the league, but in the Champions League, they've only scored 1 goal, conceded 11, and Taylor's suspension further weakens their post-ball-loss midfield defense. Galatasaray arrives on the international stage with an average of 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded goals, with an expected goals average of 1.6 away from home. The guests' individual quality is high due to Osimhen (6 goals in the series), but the defense is more stable with Sanchez's return. The high pace, the runs of the two wing-backs, and the average of 27-29 fouls per match indicate a high card count. The risk is that Galata stands over an average of 2 goals conceded in the Champions League, so the +0.25 handicap isn't foolproof.