MoldovaItaly

Based on the shooting and goal data from the six qualifying rounds so far, the Italian attacking machinery operates at an average of 3.0 goals per match, while the Moldovan defense, conceding 4.3 goals per match, is one of the most vulnerable in the European zone. The expected goal difference (expected goals: Italy ≈ 2.9 - Moldova ≈ 0.6) is approximately +2.3 in favor of the Azzurri, even after a -0.15 xG correction due to Barella's suspension and Kean's injury. The main risk is Gattuso's rotation plans and potential drop in motivation, but due to the depth of the Italian squad, the quality difference is expected to remain. The high Italian ball possession promises a one-sided game;