Celta VigoBologna

As the group stage reaches its final stretch, gaining points is critically important for both teams: Celta is chasing a direct spot in the last 16, while Bologna wants to hold onto its playoff position. Based on statistics, the Galicians are a bit more attacking at home (averaging 1.6 expected goals while allowing 1.1), while the Italians are solid but not unbeatable away (1.3 expected goals scored, 1.0 expected goals conceded). Celta is on a roll: aside from their feat against Real Madrid, they're averaging over 2.0 expected goals at home in the Europa League, whereas Bologna, since a 4-1 loss to Salzburg, has taken a step back and is dealing with a wave of injuries. The guests are missing starting goalkeeper Skorupski, center-back Casale, and their frequent passer Freuler, forcing Vincenzo Italiano to rotate.

The main risk for Celta is defensive uncertainty (Aidoo is injured, Starfelt often ends up in one-on-one situations), and for the guests, it's the backup goalkeeper and the reshuffled left-back side. Overall, however, the absences weaken Bologna more, tipping the scale in favor of the home side.