UdineseInternazionale

Udinese, as a stable mid-table team, hosts Inter, who are chasing the championship title. The Friuli team attacks with moderate efficiency on their home ground (expected goals: ≈0.7/match), while in defense, they often use a deep block, which slows down the pace but doesn't prevent the creation of chances (xGA at home: ≈1.4). Inter is dominant even away from home - producing around 2.0 expected goals while conceding only 0.7 goals per game. Chivu rotates, but the return of Lautaro, Dimarco, and Barella strengthens the starting lineup; however, Calhanoglu is injured, slightly reducing Milan's set-piece impact. For the home team, Zaniolo is suspended, and without him, the attacking quality diminishes.

The match is important for Inter to stay at the top of the table, while Udinese is not under relegation pressure - this motivational difference is also taken into account. The deep home defense, potential tempo reduction after Inter's early lead, and Calhanoglu's absence collectively push the goal expectation downwards, so a moderate number of goals and Inter dominance is the most likely scenario. The main risk is the visitors' rotation scheme (upcoming Champions League match against Arsenal), but due to squad depth, this merely increases variance without disrupting the anticipated picture.