AtalantaDortmund

The way the tie looks right now heavily shapes the return leg: Atalanta are starting from 0-2, so they will probably attack more aggressively and commit more numbers forward, which boosts the game’s tempo and the chances of an open match. Based on the stats database, Dortmund have more stable, elite finishing profiles in attack: Guirassy has produced 16 goals in 27.6 “matches” worth of minutes, Beier 8 in 20.3, and Brandt 10 in 18.2, which points to a high per-game goal threat. At the same time, the big swings in Dortmund’s away UCL games this season (e.g. 4-4, 1-4) are a warning sign: their defending is not always controlled, and the amount of goals conceded is meaningful too (Kobel at 1.16 goals conceded/90 overall).

Atalanta at home have taken a few big scalps this season, and according to the expert report they come in off a good home run, but the absence of two key attackers (Raspadori, De Ketelaere) reduces creativity and the ability to create quality chances. For the visitors, Schlotterbeck’s return can help with build-up play and defensive stability, but his full workload is uncertain.