LilleNantes

Lille host relegation-battling Nantes at home, and the basic league numbers clearly tilt the expected goal balance toward the hosts. Nantes have scored 22 and conceded 40 in 23 league matches (around 0.96 scored and 1.74 conceded per game), and away from home they stand at a 10-18 goal difference across 11 matches, which paints a consistently negative picture of their defending. On Lille's side, output has been up and down all season, but there are still things to lean on in attack: Giroud is on 9 league goals, and the team also has several creative midfielders (e.g. Haraldsson, Correia).

The stakes are different too: Lille are pushing for European spots, while for Nantes every point is gold around 17th place.

The main uncertainty factors are Lille's packed schedule (short rest after a Europa League match) and the longer injury list mentioned on the home side. There are question marks for Nantes as well (Machado, Ganago), but Abline's return (after suspension) could boost the visitors' attacking potential.