MarseilleAjax

Marseille is particularly goal-dangerous at home: in the three home league matches played this season, they have scored an average of 3.3 goals and only conceded one, but on the Champions League match against Real Madrid, they conceded two goals. Ajax has not been able to win away (three draws) but managed to score at least twice in every away game, while also conceding goals regularly (five goals conceded in the three away league matches, two against Inter). The xG data also predicts an open, eventful match: Ajax produces an average xG of 1.9 and allows 1.6 away, whereas Marseille has an xG of 2.2 at home.

• Goals are expected on both sides based on the playing style of the two teams, and exceeding the 1.5 mark seems realistic.
• Due to Marseille's home form (4-0, 1-0, 5-2) and Ajax's winless status away, a home defeat seems less likely.
• Ajax's attack with Weghorst, Godts, and Berghuis is dangerous even away, which is why the BTTS "yes" outcome is supported by the numbers.
• Main risk: if Marseille's defense reaches the level seen against PSG, the BTTS might fall apart, but based on the statistics, this seems unlikely.