CelticSturm Graz

The shooting volume (average ~14/90) and xG quality (0.12 xG/shot) are stable, and they keep the number of goals conceded to 0.80 xGA/90. Sturm Graz is leading their domestic league by a large margin, but in Europe, they have an away goal difference of 0-7 (Midtjylland 0-2, Bodø/Glimt 0-5), and data indicates an away goal expectation around 1.0, working with an xGA of 1.4. Graz may have to field a backup goalkeeper, while the Kiteishvili-Malone duo is in form, so we cannot completely disregard the guests' scoring chance. On average, Celtic matches produce 2.2 goals, 9 corners, and 3.6 yellow cards; neither side has exceptionally high indiscipline, so there's no serious edge in the card or corner markets.