QarabağChelsea

Based on the three group matches so far, Qarabağ's average expected goals at home and away is 1.3, while their defense is around 1.9. In contrast, Chelsea has shown an attacking efficiency between 1.7-2.0, while allowing expected goals around 1.4. The absence of Colwill and Badiashile from the guest defense increases the home expected goal by 0.15, making the final estimate: Qarabağ 1.35 λ - Chelsea 1.80 λ. The risks include the long journey and Chelsea's fluctuating away defense, but due to the formidable attacking team (João Pedro returns), the combination of both teams scoring and the guest's success remains probable.