Newcastle UnitedAthletic Club

Based on the numbers, Newcastle's attacking game at home is quite effective: in the three CL matches so far, they've generated 2.17 expected goals (xG) while the defense has only conceded 0.77. Athletic, on the other hand, shows a significant decline: due to the recent injuries of Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams, and Sancet, the away team's xG decreases from 1.53 to about 1.0, and moreover, Berchiche's forced absence adds +0.15 xG to Newcastle. The Magpies' shooting volume (16.2 shots/match) and 0.14 chance quality are convincing, while Bilbao only reaches 8.7 shots away from home. The main risk for Newcastle is occasional defensive lapses and the visitors' set pieces, but the statistical difference remains significant.