GeorgiaSpain

Based on the group's numbers so far, there is a huge quality difference. Spain has produced a 15-0 goal difference in four games, with an expected average goal around 3.2, while the Georgian attacking play brings only 0.4 xG per match. The absence of Mikautadze for the home team further weakens their finishing, and Kakabadze's absence makes the right side more vulnerable, so the Spanish left wing (Oyarzabal-Cucurella) is expected to put pressure on. The main risk is the visitors' rotation: Yamal, Rodri, and Pedri are missing, which might reduce effectiveness, but due to the deep squad, the uncertainty is only moderate. Further volatility could be introduced by the pressure of a mandatory win and a possible early goal difference leading to a slower pace.