VillarrealAlavés

Based on statistics, Villarreal delivers a stable top 4 performance: at home, they have won 7 out of 9 matches, their shot quality (an average of 1.9 expected goals) and only 0.9 expected goals conceded at home show excellent balance. Marcelino's team, with 34 goals scored and 16 conceded, presents one of the league's best defenses, and now they host an Alavés team that has scored only three goals and conceded 11 in eight away matches. The visitors' attacking play drops to an average of 0.38 goals per away game, and their static 4-1-4-1 system creates few chances (an average of 0.95 expected goals per match).

In addition, Alavés will be without Protesoni due to suspension, and Garcés is still missing, forcing Coudet to shuffle his back four. On Villarreal's side, Cabanes and Logan Costa are out, but Veiga returns, and Canadian Buchanan has served his suspension, allowing the yellow-blue team to field their strongest defensive quartet.

The main risk is the hosts' psychological factor due to cup elimination, but the squad depth and returning players cushion this.