AVS FutebolBenfica

The xG numbers (8.6 xG - 4.3 xGA) also confirm that the goals scored are not a coincidence. In contrast, the newcomer AVS is second last with 11 goals conceded, a 0-3 goal difference at home, and 0 points. The defense is leaky (2.3 xGA per game at home), and the attack averages less than 1 xG.

The special metrics also point in one direction:

• AVS home Under 1.5 goal record: 2/2 (0 goals scored), while Benfica holds opponents under 1.0 xGA away.
• Benfica has a 26 - 13 shots on goal ratio in four league matches, with a PSxG difference of +1.4.
• AVS averages 0.8 goals/match but is goalless at home; their shots on goal average only 3.8.
• Disciplined Benfica: 5 yellows in 5 matches, no reds; reducing the risk of unexpected numerical disadvantage.

Overall, the balance of power, form, and xG metrics suggest a one-sided, but not necessarily goal-crazy away victory. The main risk is that in Mourinho's first game, the gameplay might not be fully developed yet, and there might be rotation due to international commitments, but the opponent’s weakness mitigates this.