BarcelonaAlavés

Barcelona is back in form: Flick's team has won three consecutive matches in the league, and returned to Camp Nou by sending Athletic home with a 4-0. On the home side, the season's average expected goals figure is above 2.1 at home, while they only concede ~0.8 expected goals per match. The visiting Alavés averages 0.8 expected goals away, but their xGA hovers around 1.2, so by all indicators, there's a significant difference between the two teams.

For the Catalans, Marc-André ter Stegen and Gavi are still missing, and Ronald Araújo is suspended, but Pedri's return could stabilize the midfield. In defense, the pair of Eric García and the 18-year-old Cubarsi is somewhat vulnerable, but the visiting attacking line has so far only scored 11 goals in 13 rounds. At Alavés, the suspension of Facundo Garcés and the long injury of Nikola Maras weakens the backline; Carlos Vicente might pose a threat, but he receives little support.

The stakes of the match aren't negligible either: with a win, Flick's team - at least temporarily - takes the lead in the league, while Alavés is trying to stay away from the relegation zone at the lower end of the mid-table. The Champions League defeat against Chelsea might cause a bit of a mental setback, but the signs of rotation (resting Lewandowski, starting Rashford) may rather bring freshness. The biggest uncertainty is the cohesion of the Catalan defense, but the data still project a clear home advantage.