Brighton & Hove AlbionAston Villa

The 5th and 4th place teams meet at the Amex, with only a two-point difference - meaning we've reached a direct Champions League spot clash. Brighton remains unbeaten at home (4 wins, 2 draws), with an average of 1.9 expected goals per match and only 0.9 expected goals against. The visiting Aston Villa rebounded after a poor start to the season: they have won their last five league games, with a total goal difference of 11-4, but remain inconsistent away (2-1-3, 1.3 scored - 1.4 conceded goals).

Regarding injuries, Brighton still misses Solly March and Adam Webster, but Mitoma and Milner are close to returning, allowing for more attacking rotation. From Villa's back line, Tyrone Mings is missing, and Ross Barkley is highly doubtful - hence Unai Emery is expected to rely on Kamara and Torres for defensive organization, which has worked in recent weeks, but they remain vulnerable on the flanks. The greatest uncertainty comes from the dense December schedule and potential rotation, which increases goal variance but doesn't completely overturn the main statistical trends.