NapoliJuventus

The stakes for the match are huge: only five points separate the two sides at the top of the table, and Napoli has been unbeaten at home in the league for an entire calendar year. Raw statistics also show the southern team's dominance: Partenopei's expected goals average at home is nearly 1.9, while the visitors only manage around 1.1 expected goals away. Juventus’ defense usually stays below 1.0 expected goals conceded this season, but now Bremer, Gatti, and Rugani are all missing - that's the first three deployable center-backs - which will likely disrupt their organization, especially against Conte's direct attack. On Napoli’s side, Lukaku, Lobotka, and several midfielders are out, but they managed to rest Højlund and Neres in the cup, so the main strike force remains intact.

The two teams together account for about 22 shots on goal, but the quality of shots strongly favors the home team. The main uncertainty is the mass absence of visiting defenders and Napoli's midfield rotation - but these are more likely to reduce Juve's attacking, rather than defensive, efficiency. Overall, a controlled match with few opportunities for the visitors is expected to unfold.