SevillaAlavés

In the Sevilla-Alavés matchup, the league position and the record are basically a mirror image: both teams are 7-4-12 after 23 games, on 25 points. The difference is more in the goal profile: Sevilla, with a 30-38 goal difference, tend to play more "open" games, while Alavés, at 20-29, have been showing a clearly low-scoring attacking output across the whole season. At home, Sevilla have scored 17 and conceded 18 in 12 matches (14 points), which is decent but not a dominant home return. Alavés away from home have scored just 6 and conceded 16 in 11 league games (7 points), which points to a very limited attacking efficiency on the road.

Recent form does not tilt the balance in a clear direction either: Sevilla's last five league games are mixed (L-D-W-L-D), and Alavés are also up and down (L-L-W-W-L). Motivation-wise, points matter for both sides, since Sevilla are only just above the relegation zone and Alavés are moving in the same band. Absentees: Sevilla have several injuries (e.g. Vargas, Marcao), while Alavés also have a suspension that weakens the defence (Jonny). Overall, this increases uncertainty, but the most reliable signal is still Alavés' lack of goals away from home and what looks like a tight, cagey game.