UkraineAzerbaijan

Based on the data, Ukrainian dominance is expected in the Kyiv game. Azerbaijan's attack is weak: only 0.33 goals per game across three matches, with an estimated xG of around 0.6, while their defense concedes 3.0 goals per game, with a shot difference of minus 9. The pace is moderate, but the Azerbaijanis are expected to retreat with a deep block, so we can predict 15-18 shots and an expected goal figure of around 2.2 for the Ukrainians. The visitors' goal allows an average of 6.5 shots on target, which is high. In terms of corners, the Ukrainians average 5.7, while the Azerbaijanis get 3.1, and the visiting side is characterized by indiscipline in terms of cards (2.7 yellow cards per 90). The main risk is that Ukraine is vulnerable in defense - 6 goals conceded in three games - but Azerbaijan's attacking efficiency is low, so any visitor goals are more likely to come from individual errors.