RomaUdinese

Based on the numbers, we can expect a restrained-paced match. Roma's home record is elite from a defensive perspective: in five league home games, they've allowed an average of 0.86 expected goals while conceding only 8.6 shots per game. In attack, however, they only manage 1.3 expected goals, which is unlikely to improve with the absence of the Dybala–Ferguson duo. Udinese produces 0.94 expected goals away, but with Keinan Davis's play in question, the modified attacking-λ of 0.8 is realistic. The Friulians' defense is inconsistent (1.65 expected goals conceded away), yet even despite Kristensen's injury, it's unlikely that Roma will suddenly start scoring plenty of goals. Main risk: an early goal could speed up the pace, and Zaniolo's motivation may improve Udinese's effectiveness.