OlympiacosReal Madrid

Olympiakos arrives in spectacular domestic league form (five wins in their last six matches, with an average of 2.2 goals scored), but the Champions League group stage is a whole different ball game: in four matches, they have an expected goal rate of just 0.98 goals per match and have conceded 2.5 goals, which is paired with allowing 6.2 expected goals. In Piraeus, they conceded only one goal against the Pafos-PSV duo, but now one of the strongest attacking lines in the group is coming. Real Madrid generates 2.6 expected goals per match away in the tournament, while keeping their opponents to below 1.1, although the defeat in Liverpool showed that they are vulnerable with a second-string defense.

Xabi Alonso's defensive lineup is significantly impacted by the absence of Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, and possibly Antonio Rüdiger - so Huijsen and Asencio might be placed at the defense's core, increasing the chances of conceding goals. Up front, however, the Mbappé-Vinícius pair, with Bellingham and Güler backing them, generates opportunities, assuring the continuity of Madrid's attacking play. At Olympiakos, Paschalakis remains sidelined, and the 23-year-old Tzolakis will have to fend off the visitors' attacks, while El Kaabi tries to capitalize on Madrid's defensive lapses with a record of 0.73 goals per 90 minutes.

There is no shortage of motivation: with another win, Real can secure their place in the upper playoff bracket, while the Greeks must keep their progression hopes alive. The numbers suggest an expected goal distribution of around 2.1-1.0, promising a balanced but spectacular clash, with modest guest defense and strong Madrid attacking potential.