Real BetisGetafe

Based on the statistics, Real Betis seems to be the favorite at the Benito Villamarín. Pellegrini's team scores an average of 1.6 expected goals per match at home while conceding just 1.0, whereas Getafe scores only 0.8 expected goals away and concedes 1.3. The number and quality of shots also indicate Betis dominance (average shots on goal ratio 15-8, xG difference ~ +0.8). The visitors have lost their last four competitive matches, failed to score in two league games, and won only two of their eight away league games so far. For Betis, Bakambu and Ez Abde are at the Africa Cup, Bellerín's participation is questionable, but Fornals, Antony, and Cucho remain reliable attacking weapons. For Getafe, Davinci is injured, Milla returns, but José Bordalás's team is playing its third away league game in a row and is struggling offensively (under 0.9 xG per match). The stakes are also significant: Betis is fighting for European spots, while the small Madrid team is stuck in the mid-table, but due to their poor form, they're approaching the relegation zone. The home team's motivation and fresher squad provide an advantage, but a goal fest is not expected due to missing key players. The main uncertainty is posed by Betis's defensive injury list (Llorente, Bellerín) and Getafe's potential counter-attacks.