Manchester CityBournemouth

The visiting Bournemouth is on a roll (unbeaten in eight matches), but away from home, they register only 1.6 expected goals while conceding more than 1.2. With Donnarumma's arrival, City's defense is solid, averaging just 0.50 conceded goals per 90 minutes in the defensive third. The match pace is expected to show City dominance, deep defending Cherries, and many touches in the attacking third, projecting 15-17 total attempts from the hosts. Foul profile: City commits 9.0 fouls/90, Bournemouth 11.0; an average of 4.2 cards falls in games between them. Risks could stem from City's chance conversion (Haaland dependence) and Bournemouth's counterattacks, but home dominance and statistics suggest a moderate outcome variance.