Atlético MadridInternazionale

Atlético Madrid remains formidable at home: they have won all six competitive matches at the Metropolitano this season, producing 2.9 expected goals (xG) per match while conceding just 0.8. Away from home, their defensive work isn't as defined, but for the Spanish side, home pressure, high pressing, and stable ball circulation are key. The visiting Inter is also in spectacular form in the 2025/26 season: averaging 2.4 xG and conceding only 0.7 goals per match over five away games in the Champions League/Serie A, although league defeats to Juventus and Milan highlighted that their defense can be exploited in quick transitions.

On the injury front, Jan Oblak's participation for Atlético is questionable, slightly increasing the likelihood of conceding goals, but the Musso–Giménez–Hancko axis is statistically reliable. Diego Simeone, however, might miss Marcos Llorente, which could reduce the number of deep runs on the right side. For Inter, the absence of Dumfries, Mkhitaryan, and Darmian weakens the balance on the right wing, but Calhanoglu's control and Lautaro's hundredth Champions League start still pose significant attacking potential. Based on the numbers, we can expect a goal expectancy of 1.6–1.3 (a total of ~2.9 goals), indicating an open but balanced clash where a draw isn't a tragedy for either side. The main uncertainty comes from potential goalkeeping changes and Inter's post-derby rotation.