RomaSassuolo

After 19 rounds, Roma has slowed down a bit compared to their early season surge, but their expected goal difference (1.74 scored - 0.89 conceded/90) is still comfortably at a top 4 level. The defense has stabilized in the fall: Svilar concedes 0.68 goals/90, with the Mancini–Hermoso axis now returning from the stands. As a newcomer, Sassuolo started well, but won only one of their last eight matches; their xG difference is now negative (1.32 scored - 1.46 conceded/90). Berardi, Coulibaly, Paz, and Volpato are injured/at AFCON, but Pinamonti will play, and the visitors remain dangerous on counterattacks (16 shots/90, 0.28 xG/shot). From a motivation standpoint, Roma aims to climb back to the podium, while the Neroverdi want to avoid slipping into the relegation zone again. For the home side, Dovbyk and Pellegrini are still out, Cristante, however, is suspended, which slightly reduces the midfield control, but Matías Soulé and Dybala's creativity remains outstanding. The Roman superiority is statistically clear, but counterattacks from the visitors and the absentees might increase the chance of both teams scoring. Due to the Serie A average (5.3 per match) and the tense playing style of both teams, the number of cards is also expected to rise. Main risk: Roma's midfield rotation and Sassuolo's unpredictable counterattacks.