ItalyEstonia

The Italian national team, with a new head coach, is hosting Estonia, which has been struggling for years, on home turf. The Italian attack is thus effective, while the Estonian defense is vulnerable.

• Goals Over 1.5: In Italy's matches, the total regularly exceeds 2 goals.
• Italy to keep a clean sheet: Estonia failed to score in four out of six matches, while the home defense held its ground even against stronger opponents on paper.
• Asian handicap -1.0 Italy: Italy is under pressure to win, and the difference in strength gives a realistic chance for at least a two-goal victory, while a close one-goal win refunds the stake.

Main risks: The Italian defense has proven vulnerable against stronger opponents recently, so an unexpected Estonian counter-attack goal could spoil the clean sheet chance; additionally, the new coach's first competitive match can always bring tactical uncertainties.