PAOKYoung Boys

Based on statistics, PAOK shows very high attacking efficiency at home (an average of 3.1 expected goals per game), while with Pavlenka in goal they allow only 0.9 goals/90 minutes. The Young Boys have a lively attack (1.4-1.5 expected goals), but their defense concedes 1.9 goals per game, particularly vulnerable away from home. Due to the absence of Lovren, we adjusted the expected goals for the Swiss by +0.15, so λ_home ≈ 3.1, λ_away ≈ 1.4. The high tempo (PAOK 13 shots/90, YB 15), frequent fouls by the Swiss (16 fouls/90), and referee tendencies suggest we can also expect a lot of cards. The main risk is potential PAOK rotation and the Young Boys' quick wingers' counter-efficiency.